One topic of our future research work will focus on 3-deazaneplanocin A order improving the model by integrating these processes, especially aeolian sand transport, which is closely related to beach recovery. A modelling methodology for simulating the decadal-to-centennial morphological evolution of the wave-dominated southern Baltic coast has been developed. A method for generating representative climate conditions serving for the model boundary input is

presented in this paper. The method is based on the statistical analysis of 50-year high-resolution (hourly averaged) wind data. Four seasonal wind classes, each with a predominant distribution of wind direction and speed, are derived. The Weibull distribution

function is used to analyse the wind strength of each class. The Weibull distributed random number generator is applied to generate the representative wind series based on the Weibull parameters of each class. Long-term trend terms of the wind series are analysed by linear best-fit functions of the yearly Weibull parameters. Auto-correlation coefficients are calculated to obtain the cyclical terms of the wind series. Extreme value theory serves as a tool to calculate the return periods of storms. The generated wind series (including the representative storms) are further FGFR inhibitor calibrated by sensitivity studies of the model. After a successful model validation, coastline change of the Darss-Zingst peninsula in the next 300 years is projected on the basis of four different climate scenarios, through which impacts Celecoxib of long-term sea level

change and frequency of storms on the coastline change are quantified. The projected coastline change in most parts of the peninsula is faster than the change in the last 300 years in all climate scenarios as a result of sea level rise. An 20% increase in storm frequency (Scenario 2) induces a ca 35% greater coastline retreat (compared to Scenario 1) when the rate of sea level rise is 2 mm year−1; however, such storm-induced effects become less remarkable under an accelerated sea level rise of 3 mm year−1. The increase in storm frequency by 20% in Scenario 4 induces only a ca 11% greater coastline change than Scenario 3. Comparison of Scenario 4 with two other scenarios (Scenario 2 and 3) indicates that the coastal profile on Darss will evolve into an almost equilibrium state in these scenarios. The hindcast wind data (1958–2007) of the Baltic Sea were kindly provided by Dr. R. Weisse. The simulations were carried out at the supercomputing facilities of the MPI-IPP (Max-Plank-Institute for Plasma Physics) in Greifswald and Garching, Germany.